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CryptoQuant’s volatility-adjusted momentum indicator has crossed below zero, a threshold that historically marks the transition from tepid optimism to outright bearish territory. The on-chain analytics firm published the finding in a Quicktake report on August 17, flagging that its risk oscillator has simultaneously reverted to a level previously associated with major market turning points.
What the indicators are actually saying
Volatility-adjusted momentum measures price momentum relative to how volatile the asset has been, filtering out the noise that makes raw momentum readings unreliable in crypto. When this metric sits above zero, the market generally has enough directional energy to sustain trends. When it drops below, the implication is that whatever momentum existed has been consumed by volatility without producing meaningful gains.
The risk oscillator adds a second layer. By reverting to a prior turning-point level, it suggests the market is sitting at a structural inflection, the kind of zone where prices have historically either found a floor or broken down further. With momentum already negative, the odds tilt toward the latter.
CryptoQuant’s assessment is blunt: the market is weak, with no support from either side.
A broader picture of fading demand
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, a composite metric that tracks buying enthusiasm across multiple on-chain and market-structure inputs, has dropped to zero. That’s the lowest possible reading and one the platform has flagged as reflecting minimal buying enthusiasm alongside depressed demand.
Demand metrics more broadly are sitting at 2026 lows, according to CryptoQuant’s data. The pattern is consistent with what several analysts have observed throughout the year: long-term holder supply has dominated the market while visible spot demand has dried up.
Bitcoin itself has traded in a wide but ultimately directionless band this year, ranging from sub-$65,000 levels to peaks near $82,000.
What this means for positioning
The combination of negative volatility-adjusted momentum, a risk oscillator at a turning-point level, and a zeroed-out Bull Score Index creates a trifecta of caution signals. Each metric captures a different dimension of market health, and all three are pointing in the same direction.
CryptoQuant, which specializes in on-chain and derivatives data analysis and is frequently cited by outlets including CoinDesk and on Binance Square, has built its reputation on the kind of composite indicator work that underpins this analysis.
The key variable to watch now is whether spot demand can recover before the structural weakness reflected in these indicators translates into a more significant price correction.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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