Dan Loeb calls Nvidia reasonably valued at 15x forward earnings, dismisses AI bubble talk

Dan Loeb, the hedge fund manager behind Third Point, wants you to know that Nvidia is not expensive. Speaking on the “Invest Like the Best” podcast, Loeb pointed to Nvidia trading at roughly 15 times its 2027 forward earnings and around 12 times its 2028 forward earnings as evidence that the chipmaker remains attractively priced.

Backing up the talk with trades

Loeb isn’t just offering opinions from the sideline. Third Point has been systematically building its Nvidia position across four consecutive quarters in 2025. The fund added 1.45 million shares in Q1, followed by another 1.35 million in Q2, then 50,000 in Q3 and 100,000 in Q4.

Third Point did trim some of its Nvidia holdings in early 2026, which Loeb has framed as part of broader risk management rather than a change in conviction.

The “this isn’t the dot-com bubble” argument

Perhaps the most interesting part of Loeb’s commentary was his direct pushback on the AI-bubble narrative. He argued that the current AI investment cycle is fundamentally different from the late-1990s dot-com era because the money flowing into AI infrastructure is coming from hyperscalers, think Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, that are generating enormous real cash flows.

The Hut 8 move and what it signals

While the Nvidia commentary grabbed headlines, Third Point’s other recent move deserves attention from crypto-focused investors. The fund opened a position worth approximately $40.8 million in Hut 8, a Bitcoin mining company that has been expanding into AI data center infrastructure.

What this means for investors

Loeb’s framing of Nvidia at 15x forward earnings resets the conversation around AI valuations. The risk, of course, is execution. Those forward earnings estimates assume Nvidia maintains its dominant market share in AI accelerators while competitors like AMD and custom silicon from hyperscalers chip away at its moat. A 15x multiple looks cheap if earnings hit projections. It looks less cheap if they don’t.

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