5 hours ago
23
## Market Snapshot
Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 31 is currently priced at 56% YES, down from 58% 24 hours ago. The average ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of May is priced at 7% YES, a slight decrease from 8% a day ago. The US-Iran peace deal market is currently inactive with no recent activity.
## Key Takeaways
– Rezaei’s accusation suggests continued high tensions, impacting market perceptions of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization. – Market pricing indicates skepticism about achieving average ship transits within normal range by May 31. – The likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal appears less probable, as market sentiment reflects ongoing diplomatic friction.
## Article Body
Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, accused U.S. President Donald Trump of “betraying diplomacy” by persisting with a naval blockade and imposing excessive demands in negotiations. This accusation comes amid heightened tensions between the United States and Iran over the 2026 conflict, involving a blockade aimed at pressuring Iran over its nuclear program and maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing diplomatic struggle suggests that the situation remains precarious, with high stakes for both nations. Rezaei’s accusations indicate that the confrontation is far from resolved, with Tehran indicating that no final agreement has been reached.
## Market Interpretation
Markets appear to be interpreting Rezaei’s statement as consistent with NO outcome support in several related markets. The impact is considered moderate to high, as ongoing tensions and lack of progress in negotiations suggest continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This is reflected in the decreased likelihood of traffic normalization by July 31 and reduced odds of a US-Iran peace deal before Trump’s visit to China. The pricing for average ship transits in the Strait by the end of May also suggests a continuation of disruption.
## What to Watch
Observers should watch for any changes in U.S. or Iranian diplomatic stances that might affect the blockade. Key developments could include announcements of resumed negotiations or any military actions in the Gulf region. Additionally, attention should be paid to potential statements from Iranian or U.S. officials that could influence market perceptions of the likelihood of a peace agreement. The upcoming expiration of the blockade or any shifts in international diplomatic engagements may also provide new insights into the evolving situation.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
English (US) ·