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Iran’s military adviser says no country can block its oil exports, despite nearly full storage and evasive shipping tactics. The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 are 58% YES, down from 72% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Following the WSJ report, the Strait of Hormuz blockade market dropped sharply. The odds sat at 90% a week ago and have fallen steadily since, suggesting growing skepticism about a quick resolution. The largest move in the past day was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM, but the overall trend remains downward. Over a month remains until the May 31 resolution.
The Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by June 30 market remains inactive, with no meaningful trading activity. Iran’s evasive shipping tactics and ongoing disruptions point to a situation that is not stabilizing.
Why it matters
The WSJ report illustrates the persistent cat-and-mouse dynamic between Iran and the US. Iran’s claims sound defiant, but nearly full oil storage and reliance on alternative shipping routes show the blockade is partially working. Trading volume in the blockade market is $95,253 in daily USDC, but it only takes $8,995 to move the odds by 5 percentage points. That thinness means odds can swing dramatically on any new statement from Trump or Iranian officials.
What to watch
For contrarian traders, buying YES at 58¢ offers a 1.72x return if Trump lifts the blockade, but confidence in that outcome is falling. Watch for official White House statements or Trump social media posts. Any confirmation of talks or shift in naval strategy could move the market. Changes in Iranian oil export tactics or statements from Iranian officials are also potential catalysts.
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