Iran’s foreign minister targeted in assassination attempt, wife killed

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

Iran’s foreign minister was critically injured in an assassination attempt at his home, resulting in his wife’s death. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are now at 10% YES, down from 12% yesterday and 22% last week.

The attack on Kamal Kharazi highlights the ongoing focus on leadership amid Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-Israel military campaign. This follows the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The June 30 market here shows the biggest drop recently, suggesting traders see this as serious but not decisive.

Despite the assassination attempt, market odds have steadily declined. Trading volume is at $124,433 in USDC daily. It takes $26,300 to shift the price by 5 percentage points, indicating market stability. The largest single move was a 1-point drop, reflecting tempered reactions to social media-sourced news.

The assassination attempt complicates Iran’s political situation. While targeting leaders can destabilize regimes, the market remains skeptical without broader evidence of collapse. A YES share at 10¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a 10x return. Traders betting on this outcome would need to believe in a rapid breakdown of regime control or imminent leadership change.

Watch for signals from Iran’s IRGC Supreme Council or unexpected moves by the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances will also be crucial indicators of leadership stability.

Markets Impacted

• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 10.5% YES

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