Iran sells crude at 20% markup as oil sanctions end, Speaker Ghalibaf says

For years, Iran sold its crude at steep discounts because nobody wanted to risk the wrath of US sanctions enforcement. That era, according to Iran’s top parliamentary official, is over.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, declared that Iran is now selling its crude oil at a 20% markup, a dramatic reversal from the fire-sale pricing that defined the sanctions era. The shift follows a 60-day sanctions waiver issued by the US Treasury on June 22, allowing Iran to sell oil and petrochemical products as part of broader negotiations over frozen assets and regional tensions.

From discounts to premiums

The 60-day waiver changed that calculus overnight. With the legal risk of buying Iranian oil temporarily removed, Tehran can now price its crude closer to, and apparently above, prevailing market rates. Ghalibaf’s claim of a 20% markup suggests Iran is capitalizing aggressively on the window.

Ghalibaf has also discussed the unfreezing of $12 billion in Iranian assets as part of the ongoing diplomatic process. The Speaker indicated that oil prices could reach $140 per barrel this year, a level not seen since the commodity supercycle of 2008.

That $140 figure deserves some skepticism. It’s a political statement as much as a market forecast. But the underlying point, that Iran feels emboldened enough to talk about premium pricing and triple-digit oil, tells you something about how Tehran reads the current geopolitical moment.

The sanctions paradox

The Trump administration’s approach to Iran right now is multidirectional. On one hand, you have the oil sanctions waiver, a genuine concession that unlocks billions in potential revenue for Tehran. On the other hand, the US imposed sanctions on Nobitex, Iran’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, in June 2026.

The Nobitex sanctions reflect a broader pattern where the US treats traditional commodity flows and digital asset flows as separate policy levers. Oil gets a carve-out because it serves diplomatic negotiations. Crypto gets cracked down on because it represents an uncontrolled financial channel that’s harder to monitor and easier to abuse for sanctions evasion.

Ghalibaf also stated that Iran can defend itself if the US initiates conflict, adding a military dimension to what is otherwise a story about trade negotiations.

What this means for markets

If the 60-day waiver gets extended or formalized into a longer-term arrangement, traders should expect additional supply to weigh on prices. Ghalibaf’s $140 projection runs counter to this logic, which is partly why it reads more like political theater than market analysis.

For crypto investors, the dual-track approach, oil waiver plus Nobitex sanctions, suggests the US will continue using digital asset enforcement as a pressure valve even when it eases traditional trade restrictions. That means exchanges with any exposure to sanctioned jurisdictions face ongoing compliance risk. The playbook of selectively relaxing commodity sanctions while tightening crypto enforcement could become a template for future negotiations with other sanctioned states, making this a precedent worth watching closely.

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