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Rep. Bryan Steil, the Wisconsin Republican who chairs the House Administration Committee, has proposed legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their families, and congressional staff from placing bets on political outcomes through prediction markets. The measure targets platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have exploded in popularity as venues for wagering on elections and policy decisions.
The restrictions are set to be attached to H.R. 7008, the Stop Insider Trading Act, with Steil aiming for a House vote during the summer of 2026.
A bipartisan crackdown takes shape
The Senate already moved first, passing S. Res. 708 in late April 2026, which bans prediction market trading for senators and their staff. More than ten prediction-market-related bills have been introduced in the 119th Congress since January 2026.
The urgency intensified in May 2026, when the House Oversight Committee launched a probe into suspicious trades on Polymarket and Kalshi tied to election events. The investigation focused on whether individuals with nonpublic knowledge of political outcomes were using prediction markets to profit.
What it means for Polymarket and Kalshi
The two dominant platforms in this space occupy very different regulatory positions. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that holds roughly 89% of the US prediction market share as of April 2026. Polymarket, by contrast, operates using stablecoins for collateral and settlement, placing it squarely in crypto’s regulatory gray zone.
Kalshi has already navigated years of regulatory battles to offer political contracts in the US, including a landmark court victory against the CFTC in 2024. Polymarket’s crypto-native infrastructure, built on blockchain rails with stablecoin settlement, makes enforcement more complex, as verifying whether a user is a congressional staffer or a lawmaker’s spouse requires identity checks that run somewhat counter to the pseudonymous ethos of crypto trading. Both platforms have emphasized their commitment to detecting insider trading and complying with existing regulations.
The proposed restrictions specifically target political contracts. Non-political prediction markets, including sports-related wagering, would remain unaffected.
What this means for investors
Members of Congress and their staff represent a tiny fraction of total users on these platforms. More than ten bills have been introduced on this topic in a single congressional session. For Polymarket, which has generated billions in trade volume driven heavily by political events surrounding the 2024 elections and beyond, increased oversight could translate into higher compliance costs.
If new rules require stringent identity verification for political contracts, Polymarket’s crypto-native architecture becomes a liability. The 89% market share that Kalshi already commands could grow even larger as regulatory pressure favors the platform with the clearest path to compliance.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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