2 hours ago
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A Mashhad memorial video allegedly lists Mojtaba Khamenei among the dead, triggering rumors about his potential death. Iran leadership change by December 31 sits at 39.5% YES.
Market reaction
The leadership market moved on the news. December 31 odds are at 39.5% YES, down from 42% a day ago. The April 30 market dropped to 1.4% YES with only two days left. May 31 ticked up to 14.5% YES. The largest gap remains between May 31 and December 31, which means traders expect any real change to come later this year.
In the Reza Pahlavi market, odds for his entry into Iran by June 30 are at 6.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday. December 31 odds hold at 13.5% YES. The small rise tracks the increased volatility and perceived instability that might open a path for his return.
Why it matters
Total volume across leadership change markets is $17,697 in USDC. The order book shows it takes $50,406 to move the December 31 market 5 percentage points, a sign of cautious positioning. The single largest price move in the past 24 hours was a 48-point spike on April 30, likely reactive trading to the unconfirmed news.
The rumors are unconfirmed, but Mojtaba Khamenei is widely considered the most likely successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His potential absence would create real uncertainty about succession. At 40¢, a YES share on leadership change by December 31 pays $1 if resolved, a 2.5x return. The question for traders is whether this rumor gets confirmed or dissolves as speculation.
What to watch
Keep an eye on Iranian state media for any confirmation or denial of Mojtaba’s status. A public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei or a statement from the Assembly of Experts could move the odds sharply in either direction.
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