Solana (SOL) Price Analysis: Consecutive Monthly Declines Point to Potential $60 Test

Key Takeaways

• SOL has declined 10% over the last month following a breakdown from critical trend line support
• ETF products tracking Solana recorded minimal net inflows of $14.6 million during July, with June posting net outflows
• Daily active user metrics show a moving average crossover that historically precedes significant price volatility
• Current price action remains beneath the 100-day SMA at $78.06 and 200-day SMA at $84.71
• Critical support zones include $72, $70, and the $66–$67 range

Solana (SOL) is currently hovering near $73 following a 10% pullback across the previous 30-day period. Technical analysis reveals a breach of crucial trend line support, subsequently establishing a descending channel formation on daily timeframes.

Solana (SOL) Price

Price action has slipped underneath both major moving averages — the 100-day simple moving average positioned at $78.06 and the 200-day SMA at $84.71. This configuration maintains bearish technical momentum in the near term.

Selling pressure has dominated market dynamics over recent weeks. SOL continues establishing lower highs after unsuccessful attempts to breach the July high around $82. The stochastic oscillator has plunged to 3.06, indicating extreme oversold conditions, while the Ultimate Oscillator registers 38.8.

Exchange-traded fund activity around SOL remains subdued. July witnessed modest net inflows totaling only $14.6 million, while June experienced net outflows of $800,000. These figures suggest limited institutional appetite for fresh SOL exposure.

Blockchain metrics reveal a crossover between 30-day and 50-day moving averages tracking daily active users. Historical precedent indicates this technical signal often precedes substantial price movements for SOL.

Blockchain Metrics Present Diverging Signals

Network utilization data shows mixed performance entering August. Decentralized exchange volumes contracted 9% throughout July to $51 billion. Early August activity levels suggest a projected monthly volume around $44 billion.

Application fees experienced marginal growth from $186 million to $200 million in July. Current August trends point toward approximately $220 million in fees, representing moderate expansion.

Contrary to price weakness, crypto analyst Nebraskangooner highlighted on X that Solana’s underlying fundamentals demonstrate resilience. His analysis emphasized July’s exceptional performance, with Solana applications generating $82.9 million in revenue — the highest figure since February — capturing 16.5% of total blockchain revenue and surpassing Ethereum during that window. Stablecoin circulation reached an all-time high of $15.7 billion, while the network handled over one billion non-vote transactions within a single week.

Market Multiples Show Significant Contraction

During 2024, SOL commanded valuations between $130 and $180 with comparable DEX volumes and application fees to current levels. Market participants have since reduced their willingness to pay premium multiples for Solana’s network activity.

Throughout 2024, Solana recorded $662 billion in DEX volumes and $2.55 billion in app fees, with price peaking at $190. Current year projections estimate DEX volumes approaching $1 trillion alongside $2.8 billion in app fees — yet SOL trades below $80.

The Relative Strength Index currently stands at 44. A decline beneath 40 would activate a technical sell signal. The prevailing descending channel structure suggests a potential retest of $68 support, with the $60 threshold becoming relevant if intermediate supports fail to hold.

Initial support resides at $72. Breakdown below this level exposes $70, followed by the $66–$67 support zone.

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