Trump admin secretly contacted IRGC via Kurdish leader, report reveals

A report from the Jerusalem Post reveals that the Trump administration engaged in secret communications with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) through Kurdish leader President Barzani of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. This development suggests possible negotiations aimed at improving diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran. Such behind-the-scenes interactions could potentially influence ongoing discussions about a U.S.-Iran deal, particularly concerning Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities. Notably, this news coincides with fluctuating activity related to the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal being finalized in 2026.

The prediction market for a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026, specifically concerning Iran Reconstruction Funding, has seen increased optimism. Current pricing stands at 33% for a YES outcome, up from 22% just 24 hours prior. This rise suggests that market participants view the reported secret communications as a potential step toward a diplomatic agreement.

The market for other related deal components, such as uranium enrichment caps and moratoriums, shows varied support. For instance, the probability of a 1+ year uranium enrichment cap being included in a deal currently stands at 17% YES. These fluctuations reflect the complex geopolitical environment and the potential impact of secret negotiations on future agreements.

Key Takeaways

• The report of secret communications between the Trump administration and the IRGC appears to suggest potential negotiations with Iran.
• Market pricing shows increased optimism for a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026, with the Iran Reconstruction Funding component rising to 33% YES.
• Related markets for uranium enrichment caps and moratoriums show varied support, indicating uncertainty about the specifics of any potential deal.

What to Watch

Observers will be keenly watching for any official confirmation or denial from the involved parties regarding the reported secret communications. Statements from U.S. or Iranian officials could further influence market expectations. Additionally, any new developments in regional diplomacy or military activities could impact the perceived likelihood of a deal. As the year progresses, signs of progress or setbacks in negotiations will be critical indicators for market adjustments.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.