Ukraine’s drone strikes push Russian oil processing to lowest level since 2002

Russia’s oil machine is bleeding. Ukrainian drone campaigns targeting refineries and maritime shipping have driven Russian crude processing volumes down to 3.6 million barrels per day, a level the country hasn’t seen since May 2002.

The scale of the offensive has accelerated sharply in mid-2026, with strikes in July alone hitting 18 refineries across Russia. Two of the country’s most important facilities, Lukoil’s Volgograd and Ryazan refineries, have gone dark entirely. Volgograd halted operations on July 31, Ryazan two days earlier on July 29.

The Black Sea front

On July 15, a single overnight operation struck over 20 vessels. The tally: 17 oil tankers, two gas tankers, and one tugboat.

Russian seaborne crude shipments fell to 3.46 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to August 23, the lowest level in four months.

Ukraine has also targeted infrastructure connected to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which moves crude from Kazakhstan through Russia to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Strikes on CPC-linked facilities caused loading suspensions. The pipeline handles roughly a million barrels per day under normal conditions.

Deeper reach, broader strategy

Moscow has responded with fuel export restrictions, a move that signals the domestic supply picture is tightening enough to warrant rationing what goes abroad.

The 18 refineries hit in July collectively represent a substantial portion of Russia’s total refining capacity. Before the war, Russia processed roughly 5.5 million barrels per day. The current figure of 3.6 million represents a decline of roughly 35% from pre-war levels.

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