Underdog’s UDX Hits $1.2M Day, About 5% of Estimated Companywide Flow

Existing customers give UDX a head start

Underdog’s newly launched UDX prediction exchange recorded a reported $1.2 million in notional trading volume on Monday, July 27, according to figures published on the exchange’s market-data feed and first reported by InGame. The milestone came 10 days after UDX processed its first test trades July 17 and nine days after Underdog publicly announced the launch of its wholly owned exchange.

Notional volume counts both sides of every trade, so the figure is not equivalent to customer handle, the amount traders actually stake. The opening performance advances the launch described from the middle of July when, UDX had self-certified its first seven baseball and basketball contract templates with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but the filings established only a planned launch date and did not confirm that public trading had begun.

The $1.2 million day is meaningful for a venue that had been operating for less than two weeks, although it represents only a small portion of Underdog’s wider prediction-market business. CEO Jeremy Levine presented $4.4 billion in companywide prediction-market volume for 2026 during a July 17 CNBC interview, equivalent to an average of roughly $22.2 million per calendar day through that date. On that basis, UDX’s July 27 volume was approximately 5.4% of Underdog’s average daily activity.

That calculation is an estimate rather than a direct measure of July 27 routing, and its two main distortions run in opposite directions. Underdog’s actual late-July flow is probably higher than the annual average, since Levine described the World Cup as a major driver, which would push UDX’s real share below 5.4%. Working the other way, UDX’s opening trades were concentrated in Major League Baseball straight contracts, while the companywide figure includes third-party venues where combination products are already available. A precise market-share figure would require Underdog’s July 27 customer volume broken down among UDX, Kalshi and Crypto.com’s Derivatives North America exchange, also known as Nadex.

Underdog entered the exchange business with infrastructure and distribution that most new trading venues lack, having already spent months giving customers access to prediction markets through Crypto.com and Kalshi before it acquired Aristotle Exchange’s designated contract market and clearinghouse from PredictIt in March. Underdog also operates a registered futures commission merchant, allowing it to carry customer accounts and route orders within the same corporate structure.

That setup appears to have helped UDX avoid launching with an empty order book. The exchange established a market-maker program before opening, while Underdog could place its new venue inside an app already used by prediction-market customers. UDX, therefore, faced less of the usual problem in which a new exchange needs traders to create liquidity but needs liquidity to attract traders. The CFTC certified the initial market-maker program on July 2.

Underdog has not, however, replaced its outside exchange relationships: its current customer rules refer to UDX, Kalshi, and Crypto.com/Nadex as separate providers and state that settlement can depend on which exchange lists a contract. The documentation supports a multivenue model in which Underdog controls some listings while continuing to route other customers or products elsewhere.

That distinction also limits how Underdog’s larger volume claims should be interpreted. Levine said the company had processed $6.49 billion in prediction-market flow since entering the category in September 2025, but almost all of that activity predates UDX’s launch and was routed to third-party exchanges. The figure measures Underdog’s reach as an intermediary, not trading performed on its own exchange.

The self-certified parlay contracts for UDX on July 28, in a CFTC submission dated the previous day, indicate combination markets could begin listing as soon as July 29. Such products already account for an estimated 30% to 40% of Kalshi’s daily volume, so their arrival would raise UDX totals for compositional reasons as well as any genuine migration of customer flow – making subsequent single-day figures difficult to compare against this one.

Underdog is following a path Draftkings took in June, when it launched DKeX on a CFTC license obtained through its Railbird Technologies acquisition and ended its reliance on CME Group and Crypto.com. Polymarket US self-certified its own parlay-style contracts in May, and both DraftKings and Robinhood increased the share of volume running through their in-house venues during their opening weeks. The larger commercial test for Underdog is whether the company can move a meaningful portion of its estimated $20 million-plus average daily flow away from outside venues.