2 hours ago
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The US has sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical, one of China’s largest refiners, for purchasing Iranian oil. The likelihood of crude oil prices hitting $90 by June 30 is expected to increase, with markets anticipating tighter global supply.
Market reaction
Both the Crude Oil Predictions for June and Crude Oil Price by End of June markets are expected to react as traders assess the potential for supply disruptions. The June 30 contracts have 67 days until resolution. Meanwhile, the Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market sits at 1.1% YES, with only six days left for resolution. Traders clearly doubt current conditions will push prices past the all-time high of $120/barrel that quickly.
Why it matters
The sanctions against Hengli Petrochemical could tighten supply by restricting Iranian crude, which accounts for a meaningful share of global oil flows. The crude oil all-time high market has $2,513 in actual USDC traded, but the June markets are where volatility is more likely. If sanctions reduce Iranian barrels reaching Chinese refineries, the resulting supply gap could push prices toward $90 by June 30, making YES positions on that contract more attractive.
What to watch
This is a direct escalation in the US’s “Economic Fury” campaign against Iranian oil revenue. At 1.1% YES, a bet on crude oil reaching its all-time high by April 30 offers a 90x return but is a long shot given the six-day window and the $30+ gap to $120. The $90-by-June-30 scenario is more plausible if the situation worsens. Watch for OPEC+ announcements, US Treasury actions on enforcement, updates from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, and EIA supply reports for signals on where prices head next.
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