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Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, is sounding the alarm on a gap in China’s crude imports that he says simply cannot last. The difference between what China was importing in 2025, roughly 11.6 million barrels per day, and what it’s bringing in now, closer to 6 million bpd, represents a swing of more than 5 million barrels per day.
The numbers behind the warning
China spent much of 2025 on a buying spree, stockpiling crude at a pace that Rystad estimated at around 430,000 bpd above normal consumption needs. By late 2025, imports had climbed to approximately 11.6 million bpd, a record.
Then came the reversal. By May and June of 2026, China’s crude imports had cratered to around 6.07 million bpd. The culprit, according to analysts, is a cocktail of geopolitical disruptions centered on the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a deliberate strategic pivot inside Beijing.
Rather than competing for barrels in a turbulent market, China opted to burn through its reserves. Refiners have been drawing down both commercial and strategic petroleum stockpiles at rates exceeding 1 million bpd. Hardy’s assessment, delivered in April, was blunt: this dynamic is unsustainable.
Why China pivoted to stockpile drawdowns
Tracking firms Kpler and Vortexa have both flagged the trend, noting that declining refinery throughput combined with heavy inventory releases creates a ticking clock. At some point, China either resumes large-scale imports or faces genuine supply constraints for its domestic refining sector.
What a rebound could look like
Projections as of August 2026 suggest China may begin ramping imports back above 13 million bpd later in the year. If that materializes, it would represent a swing of roughly 7 million bpd from the mid-year lows.
Hardy’s broader point is that the market isn’t pricing this rebalancing correctly. When a buyer responsible for absorbing a significant share of global crude supply effectively steps out of the market for months, the eventual return creates a compression effect. Refiners who delayed purchases will need to fill tanks at roughly the same time, competing for the same barrels.
Hardy’s warning carries particular weight given Vitol’s position. The firm traded over 8 million bpd of crude and products globally in recent years, giving its leadership a granular, real-time view of physical flows that most market participants simply don’t have.
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