What penalty kick psychology tells us about performing under pressure, and why crypto traders should care

Geir Jordet, a sport psychology researcher at the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences, has spent over two decades answering questions about human decision-making under extreme pressure. His laboratory just happens to be the penalty spot at the FIFA World Cup.

Jordet began researching penalty kicks in 2004, shortly after completing his PhD in sport psychology. Since then, he has analyzed every major men’s international tournament shootout dating back to 1976. Conversion rates during penalty shootouts drop significantly under the most extreme pressure conditions. Nearly one in four knockout-stage games at major tournaments ends up being decided by penalties.

Jordet has been especially active ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In June 2026, he authored a piece in The Athletic titled “How to really watch a penalty shootout,” followed by a July 1 article examining the unique psychological challenges faced by late penalty specialists, those substitutes brought on specifically to take a kick in a shootout.

When a player is substituted on late with the explicit expectation of scoring a penalty, the pressure doesn’t decrease because they’re a “specialist.” It increases. The narrower your mandate, the more catastrophic failure feels.

Jordet categorically rejects the idea that penalty shootouts are “lotteries.” He argues they are psychological contests influenced by public scrutiny, anxiety, and the weight of explicit expectations. His book, Pressure: Lessons from the Psychology of the Penalty Shootout, makes the case that treating high-pressure moments as random is a convenient excuse for failing to prepare for them properly.

Jordet’s commentary has appeared in Nature and across major media outlets in late June and July 2026. He advocates for a comprehensive strategy that blends psychological preparation with technical training. Teams that treat penalties as an afterthought consistently underperform compared to those that drill the scenario repeatedly.

Jordet’s research highlights a counterintuitive finding about late substitutes. Players brought on solely for penalties carry a psychological burden that their teammates, who have been playing the entire match, don’t face. The specialist label creates a paradox where heightened expectations actually degrade performance.

The broader trend Jordet has identified is that elite teams are now treating penalty-taking as a specialized discipline that integrates psychological drills with analytics, systematizing preparation for high-pressure moments rather than leaving outcomes to chance or raw talent.

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