Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh presents first Monetary Policy Report to House committee

Kevin Warsh walked into his first congressional hearing as Federal Reserve chairman on July 14, 2026, and the message was straightforward: inflation is still a problem, and the Fed is not done dealing with it.

Warsh, who was sworn in as chair on May 22, 2026, testified before the House Financial Services Committee as part of the Fed’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

The numbers that matter

Inflation came in at 4.1%, more than double the Fed’s official 2% target.

The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate steady in June, keeping it in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Markets priced in a 16% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting following Warsh’s testimony.

Warsh is scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on July 15, 2026, the day after the House hearing.

A new chair, a new playbook

One of the cleaner breaks from recent Fed practice: less forward guidance. The Fed under Jerome Powell leaned heavily on signaling future rate moves to manage market expectations. Warsh appears to be pulling back from that approach.

Warsh announced the creation of five task forces to conduct a broad review of Fed operations. Those task forces will examine how the central bank uses data, how it communicates with the public, and how it manages its balance sheet.

What this means for crypto and broader markets

The current federal funds rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% is already elevated relative to the near-zero rates that defined the 2020 to 2022 bull market in crypto. If the October FOMC meeting produces a hike, even the modest 25 basis points the market is currently pricing as a minority outcome, that would push rates higher still.

The five task forces Warsh created are also worth tracking over a longer timeline. A review of the Fed’s balance sheet management, in particular, could eventually influence how much liquidity remains in the financial system.

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